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October 1, 2015

A battle for supremacy in SMB lending

The fintech world is a great dynamo of innovation. Small Business lending is just one area where new entrants are threatening to disrupt the status quo.

Early innovators like CAN Capital have been joined by numerous others, including OnDeck, Lending Club, Funding Circle, Kabbage and Fundera. In the United States alone there are at least 100 non-Bank Small Business lenders that have emerged in recent years and more are being launched every month.

Traditionalists would call them insane to enter a space dominated by the giant banks with their embedded customer bases and numerous other advantages. Progressives would call them the “Brave 100”, secretly hoping that they win the battle and dethrone the powerful incumbents.

What’s interesting is that players on each side of the battlefield see the world in an identical way but opposite to that of the other side! There’s a profound disconnect that’s fundamental and almost religious in nature. It’s impossible to believe both sides are right given how far apart their first principles are.

Download the full whitepaper here

The fintech world is a great dynamo of innovation. Small Business lending is just one area where new entrants are threatening to disrupt the status quo.

Early innovators like CAN Capital have been joined by numerous others, including OnDeck, Lending Club, Funding Circle, Kabbage and Fundera. In the United States alone there are at least 100 non-Bank Small Business lenders that have emerged in recent years and more are being launched every month.

Traditionalists would call them insane to enter a space dominated by the giant banks with their embedded customer bases and numerous other advantages. Progressives would call them the “Brave 100”, secretly hoping that they win the battle and dethrone the powerful incumbents.

What’s interesting is that players on each side of the battlefield see the world in an identical way but opposite to that of the other side! There’s a profound disconnect that’s fundamental and almost religious in nature. It’s impossible to believe both sides are right given how far apart their first principles are.

Download the full whitepaper here

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01

Settlement Collapse

Value transfer moves from days - corresponding banking, T+1 securities - to seconds. Working capital tied up in float is released.

02

Cost Collapse

Marginal transaction cost approaches zero: fractions of a cent, versus 1-6% on card and corresponding rails.

03

Programmability

Money becomes an object that carries logic - escrow, splits, rebates, compliance - executed by code, not back offices.

Pure infrastructure with no revenue accrual

Layer-1 chains and general-purpose middleware — outside our circle of competence and typically outside our stage.

Speculative asset creation

NFT platforms, memecoins, prediction markets styled as products — mapping to none of the five functions; structurally uninvestable for us.

Three structural truths cut across all five functions.

(a)

Regulated-first wins

The 2020/21 cycle proved permissionless purity does not survive contact with real financial regulation. GENIUS, MiCA, CLARITY and the UK/Singapore regimes are producing founders who start from “how do we get licensed” and build backwards — precisely the founder profile QED has always preferred.
(b)

Incumbents upgraded, not disintermediated

JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are jointly building a tokenized-deposit network; Visa launched a stablecoin platform in July 2026; 140+ businesses signed an open stablecoin standard. Banks migrate — and new-generation infrastructure companies own the picks and shovels of that migration.
(c)

Emerging markets feel it first

Every function improves most where the fiat experience is worst: cross-border payments, dollar access, investment product availability, working-capital finance. Those are exactly the geographies where QED has fintech ventures’ deepest footprint. Our geographic distribution is not incidental to the tokenization thesis — it is the thesis.

Trade & working-capital finance

Finkargo( LatAm import finance) and OatFi(B2B working-capital infrastructure) sit directly on flows whose logical settlement layer is stablecoin.

Collateralized digital-asset lending

Tokenized Treasuries, equities and stablecoin holdings as instant, programmable collateral.

On-chain private credt

Maple, Centrifuge and emerging institutional protocols - credit funds migrating to programmable rails.

Why QED is advanced

Credit is QED's craft: distinguishing lending businesses from fintechs pretending to be one, charge-offs earned from charge-offs deferred. On-chain credit is a straight-line extension, not a stretch.