Thought Leadership Threads

You’re probably familiar with SAFE notes if you’re an early stage Founder or Investor.

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But did you know that later stage Investors and Founders are also using SAFE notes?

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And have you figured out that later stage SAFEs can create real downstream problems for a startup? 🧵👇

The startup ecosystem is finally seeing good companies come to market again.

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But after a year of focusing on costs and runway, some startups aren’t exciting anymore. Many startups that try to raise will hear: “We want more proof!”

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Here’s what you need to know about proof:🧵👇

At a startup, stock options can be lucrative depending on the success of the company.

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With valuations down, Founders are asking to reprice historical options.

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Here’s what it means, why it’s important and when it’s appropriate.

Startups that have clean narratives and “up-and-to-the-right” results can generally raise capital with minimal friction.

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But a fundraise takes on an entirely different form when a startup has “asterisks” that complicate the story.

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Unfortunately, asterisks are now the norm!🧵👇

The biggest fallacy in the Startup world is to believe that the entry price for a great investment is irrelevant.

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While great investments generate great returns, being indifferent to price is a function of sloppy thinking.

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A useful mental model that great Investors use:🧵👇

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There’s a major structural flaw in how the VC ecosystem works that we don’t talk about enough.

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It’s a flaw that creates confusion and bad advice for Founders.

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And it’s a flaw that makes no sense when you dissect it. 🧵👇

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2022 was more of a body blow than a knockout punch to #Founders and #VCs.
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Most Founders will stagger to their feet and strategize with their Investors.
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So while the next 12 months will feel like 12 more rounds, it’s a fight that can be won.
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8 predictions for 2023: 🧵👇

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People are curious how the “pandemic vintage” of startups is going to perform.
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Are returns going to collapse because entry points are 3-5X what they were years ago?
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Will the public markets correction crush returns?
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A 🧵about how "Opportunity = Value – Perception"

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The past week was brutal for anyone holding stocks or crypto. Everything corrected and then corrected more. 💥😵💫💥

Some voices are shouting “buy the dip” while others are predicting the beginning of “a crypto winter”.

My framework for thinking about “corrections”: 🧵👇